- Book day P&L: $4,178.43 across 37 active pairs, active unrealized ($163,267.74).
- Best mover: P18 (long GTLB / short TEAM), $8,194.28 — GitLab rallied ~4.5% while the Atlassian short held; the refiner pairs P40 and P41 led the day's theme close behind.
- Worst mover: P53 (long GLW / short DELL), ($7,699.66) — a double-hit as GLW fell and DELL rose.
- Intel fell ~4% on a ~$15B dilutive equity raise for AI/manufacturing — a tailwind for the book's two INTC shorts (P21, P50).
- No trades executed 8/6–8/11 (confirmed); book composition unchanged (37 active, 17 closed).
The Coffee Grind by Provokative AI
Oil Jumps ~5% on Hormuz, Refiners Carry the Book — Monday, August 10, 2026
Crude spiked into Wednesday's CPI as the S&P eased off Friday's record; energy longs offset a pullback in the book's GLW and GNRC concentrations.
Settled close · Monday, August 10, 2026 · marks single-source (stockanalysis.com), two-source pending · produced 2026-08-11
| Instrument | Close | Chg vs prior close |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,753.11 | -0.06% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 53,975.98 | -0.11% (-60.95 pts) |
| Nasdaq Composite | 26,605.36 | -0.32% |
| Russell 2000 | 3,017.29 | -0.57% |
| WTI crude | $82.13/bbl | +5.05% (Hormuz risk premium) |
| Gold | $4,332.62/oz | -0.25% |
| Silver | $63.80/oz | +0.55% |
| 10-year UST yield | 4.69% | +4 bps |
I. Oil jumps, the record pauses
The tape gave back Friday's records by a hair — the S&P 500 slipped 0.06% to 7,753.11, the Nasdaq 0.32% to 26,605.36, and the Dow 0.11% to 53,975.98, back below 54,000. The driver was the barrel, not growth fear: WTI crude jumped roughly 5% to settle near $82 as Iran's foreign minister said Tehran was not in direct talks with Washington, keeping a bid under the Strait of Hormuz risk premium. Higher oil two sessions before Wednesday's CPI is the wrong sequencing for a market leaning into rate cuts; the 10-year yield firmed about four basis points to 4.69%. This was positioning ahead of the inflation print, not a repricing of Friday's ugly jobs number.
II. Intel buys time; shareholders pay for it
The cleanest single-stock story was Intel, off about 4% after unveiling a ~$15 billion equity raise earmarked for AI and manufacturing. A dilutive secondary dressed as a growth investment is still dilution — selling stock near multi-quarter lows to fund committed capex is a financing decision, not a strategy, and the tape marked it as such. For the book it cut the right way: Intel is the short leg of P21 and P50, so the drop was a quiet tailwind under the GLW and GNRC longs. The wider tell is that AI-capex enthusiasm is no longer lifting everything at once — NVDA gave back 2.9%, and the optical/industrial names, Corning and Generac, fell harder.
III. What worked, what didn't
Best day pair: P18 (long GTLB / short TEAM), $8,194.28 — GitLab rallied ~4.5% while the Atlassian short held roughly flat. But the day's dominant theme sat just behind it: the refiner pairs, P40 (long VLO / short AAPL, +$7,814) and P41 (long MPC / short TSLA, +$7,721). The oil bid that pressured the index paid the refiners directly — Valero and Marathon both rallied hard while their mega-cap short legs (Apple, Tesla) added to the pair. Chevron did double duty across P32 and P36. Energy longs were the winning side of the ledger.
Worst day pair: P53 (long GLW / short DELL), ($7,699.66). A textbook double-hit — Corning fell ~4.8% on the long while Dell rose ~2.6% on the short. P42 (long GLW / short MSFT) took the same medicine as Microsoft added ~1.2%. With five GLW pairs and six GNRC pairs, any AI-industrial pullback shows up magnified. Net, the energy tailwind more than covered it: the book closed $4,178.43 on the session.
IV. Pair book
All 37 active pairs, marked to the 2026-08-10 settled close (single-source; two-source pending). Sorted by Day P&L, descending. Long leg stacked above short in every per-leg column.
- GNRC — long leg on 6 active pairs (P50, P45, P47, P44, P51, P46), 2,970 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($18,206.10). Combined unrealized: $12,300.75.
- GLW — long leg on 5 active pairs (P21, P52, P54, P42, P53), 3,184 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($25,217.28). Combined unrealized: $2,405.44.
- NVDA — short leg on 3 active pairs (P48, P45, P52), 1,490 combined shares. Combined day P&L: $9,565.80. Combined unrealized: ($24,085.03).
- MSFT — short leg on 2 active pairs (P43, P42), 524 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($3,180.68). Combined unrealized: ($65,164.64).
- INTC — short leg on 2 active pairs (P50, P21), 2,245 combined shares. Combined day P&L: $9,271.85. Combined unrealized: ($18,944.75).
- DELL — short leg on 2 active pairs (P46, P53), 457 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($5,310.34). Combined unrealized: ($12,596.85).
- META — short leg on 2 active pairs (P49, P47), 338 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($953.16). Combined unrealized: ($510.38).
- BA — short leg on 2 active pairs (P16, P29), 891 combined shares. Combined day P&L: $1,452.33. Combined unrealized: ($7,483.94).
- CVX — long leg on 2 active pairs (P36, P32), 1,075 combined shares. Combined day P&L: $8,976.25. Combined unrealized: $9,541.08.
- BLK — long leg on 2 active pairs (P10, P43), 202 combined shares. Combined day P&L: ($1,007.98). Combined unrealized: $28,309.73.
| Pair | Tr | Leg (L/S) | Settled | Day %Δ | % Entry | RSI-14 | Day P&L | Unrealized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOOK TOTAL — 37 active pairs | $4,178.43 | ($163,267.74) | ||||||
| P18 | T3 | LGTLB 5,338 @ 18.73 STEAM 1,740 @ 57.47 | 40.73 149.76 | +4.52% +0.46% | +117.46% +160.59% | — — | $8,194.28 | ($43,148.60) |
| P40 | T10 | LVLO 373 @ 268.08 SAAPL 317 @ 315.29 | 314.95 308.26 | +5.58% -1.62% | +17.48% -2.23% | — — | $7,813.91 | $19,711.02 |
| P41 | T10 | LMPC 374 @ 267.65 STSLA 240 @ 416.96 | 320.32 330.88 | +7.42% +0.70% | +19.68% -20.64% | — — | $7,720.88 | $40,357.78 |
| P36 | T7 | LCVX 527 @ 189.71 SAVGO 209 @ 479.23 | 194.91 422.40 | +4.48% -1.25% | +2.74% -11.86% | — — | $5,520.69 | $14,617.87 |
| P32 | T6 | LCVX 548 @ 182.50 SAXP 316 @ 316.47 | 194.91 338.86 | +4.48% -0.60% | +6.80% +7.07% | — — | $5,223.60 | ($274.56) |
| P31 | T6 | LXME 799 @ 125.21 SDAL 1,212 @ 82.48 | 117.54 89.21 | +1.56% -2.33% | -6.13% +8.16% | — — | $4,019.76 | ($14,285.09) |
| P9 | T2 | LBX 925 @ 108.07 SKBWB 1,167 @ 85.76 | 141.66 97.87 | +3.30% +0.27% | +31.08% +14.12% | — — | $3,886.83 | $16,938.38 |
| P11 | T2 | LBRK-B 211 @ 474.66 SMURGY 8,170 @ 12.24 | 534.81 11.59 ‡ | +2.49% — | +12.67% -5.31% | — — | $2,745.11‡ | $18,002.15 |
| P33 | T7 | LSTNG 1,311 @ 76.28 SICAGY 8,718 @ 11.37 | 76.44 11.71 | +0.47% -1.76% | +0.21% +2.99% | — — | $2,302.74 | ($2,754.36) |
| P30 | T6 | LSCCO 523 @ 191.30 STECK 1,511 @ 66.16 | 204.14 66.87 | +2.55% +0.60% | +6.71% +1.07% | — — | $2,052.44 | $5,642.51 |
| P50 | T11 | LGNRC 476 @ 210.01 SINTC 1,050 @ 95.24 | 206.09 97.52 | -2.89% -4.06% | -1.87% +2.39% | — — | $1,418.62 | ($4,259.92) |
| P25 | T5 | LCLF 9,634 @ 10.38 SNUE 442 @ 226.00 | 12.49 274.61 | +1.88% +0.73% | +20.33% +21.51% | — — | $1,340.66 | ($1,157.88) |
| P48 | T11 | LMU 122 @ 820.53 SNVDA 508 @ 197.01 | 861.00 217.54 | -1.89% -2.87% | +4.93% +10.42% | — — | $1,239.82 | ($5,491.90) |
| P15 | T3 | LFCX 1,500 @ 66.65 SAPTV 1,706 @ 58.61 | 70.64 49.81 | +1.47% +0.52% | +5.99% -15.01% | — — | $1,086.44 | $20,997.80 |
| P24 | T4 | LGOOGL 289 @ 345.98 SJBLU 18,975 @ 5.27 | 357.52 6.07 ‡ | +0.91% — | +3.34% +15.18% | — — | $930.58‡ | ($11,844.94) |
| P16 | T3 | LAA 1,424 @ 70.20 SBA 458 @ 218.00 | 50.17 ‡ 232.79 | — -0.70% | -28.53% +6.78% | — — | $746.54‡ | ($35,296.54) |
| P17 | T3 | LSBSW 10,525 @ 9.50 SHMC 4,159 @ 24.04 | 10.67 31.72 | +0.28% -0.31% | +12.32% +31.95% | — — | $731.65 | ($19,626.87) |
| P29 | T6 | LCENX 1,516 @ 65.97 SBA 433 @ 231.15 | 51.23 ‡ 232.79 | — -0.70% | -22.34% +0.71% | — — | $705.79‡ | ($23,055.96) |
| P38 | T5 | LPKX 1,196 @ 63.00 SSLX 686 @ 109.91 | 58.35 110.07 | +1.00% +0.05% | -7.38% +0.15% | — — | $659.38 | ($5,671.16) |
| P21 | T4 | LGLW 567 @ 176.30 SINTC 1,195 @ 83.67 | 157.76 97.52 | -4.78% -4.06% | -10.52% +16.55% | — — | $444.71 | ($27,062.93) |
| P45 | T11 | LGNRC 506 @ 197.54 SNVDA 509 @ 196.51 | 206.09 217.54 | -2.89% -2.87% | +4.33% +10.70% | — — | $166.00 | ($6,377.97) |
| P12 | T2 | LMET 1,476 @ 67.73 SCVS 1,427 @ 70.08 | 97.77 ‡ 95.64 | — -0.06% | +44.35% +36.47% | — — | $85.62‡ | $7,864.92 |
| P3 | T2 | LPHO 1,495 @ 66.86 SBEDZ 3,223 @ 31.03 | 73.31 ‡ 38.06 ‡ | — — | +9.65% +22.66% | — — | $0.00‡ | ($13,014.94) |
| P49 | T11 | LCAT 119 @ 840.85 SMETA 169 @ 593.41 | 841.61 594.92 | -0.07% +0.48% | +0.09% +0.25% | — — | ($545.60) | ($164.75) |
| P10 | T2 | LBLK 107 @ 934.06 SXLF 2,039 @ 49.05 | 1131.40 57.81 | -0.44% +0.36% | +21.13% +17.86% | — — | ($962.12) | $3,253.74 |
| P4 | T2 | LXYL 836 @ 119.56 SRONB 4,372 @ 22.87 | 121.19 23.71 | +0.72% +1.93% | +1.36% +3.67% | — — | ($1,240.08) | ($2,309.80) |
| P43 | T11 | LBLK 95 @ 1055.67 SMSFT 262 @ 381.70 | 1131.40 506.06 | -0.44% +1.21% | +7.17% +32.58% | — — | ($2,064.39) | ($25,387.97) |
| P52 | T11 | LGLW 645 @ 155.00 SNVDA 473 @ 211.30 | 157.76 217.54 | -4.78% -2.87% | +1.78% +2.95% | — — | ($2,071.74) | ($1,171.32) |
| P54 | T11 | LGLW 645 @ 155.00 SAMD 198 @ 504.00 | 157.76 469.56 | -4.78% -2.86% | +1.78% -6.83% | — — | ($2,376.00) | $8,599.32 |
| P47 | T11 | LGNRC 511 @ 195.60 SMETA 169 @ 593.41 | 206.09 594.92 | -2.89% +0.48% | +5.36% +0.25% | — — | ($3,609.01) | $5,105.20 |
| P26 | T5 | LGEV 93 @ 1072.27 SXLE 1,703 @ 58.73 | 990.52 60.06 | +0.02% +4.45% | -7.62% +2.26% | — — | ($4,341.08) | ($9,867.74) |
| P44 | T11 | LGNRC 495 @ 202.01 SAMZN 431 @ 232.11 | 206.09 278.09 | -2.89% +1.32% | +2.02% +19.81% | — — | ($4,590.26) | ($17,797.78) |
| P51 | T11 | LGNRC 476 @ 210.01 SHPE 1,901 @ 52.61 | 206.09 54.68 | -2.89% +2.74% | -1.87% +3.93% | — — | ($5,693.34) | ($5,800.99) |
| P46 | T11 | LGNRC 506 @ 197.54 SDELL 234 @ 426.91 | 206.09 465.39 | -2.89% +2.56% | +4.33% +9.01% | — — | ($5,820.86) | ($4,678.02) |
| P5 | T2 | LERII 9,930 @ 10.07 SMMT 22,006 @ 4.54 | 7.99 4.38 ‡ | -7.95% — | -20.66% -3.62% | — — | ($6,851.70)‡ | ($17,038.81) |
| P42 | T11 | LGLW 682 @ 146.65 SMSFT 262 @ 381.70 | 157.76 506.06 | -4.78% +1.21% | +7.58% +32.58% | — — | ($6,991.78) | ($25,005.30) |
| P53 | T11 | LGLW 645 @ 155.00 SDELL 223 @ 449.28 | 157.76 465.39 | -4.78% +2.56% | +1.78% +3.59% | — — | ($7,699.66) | ($1,812.33) |
What to Watch
- CPI, Wednesday Aug 12. Monday was defensive positioning ahead of it; an oil-driven upside surprise turns the pause into a trend.
- Oil / Hormuz headlines. The refiner longs (VLO, MPC, CVX) are now the book's beta to the barrel — a credible de-escalation reverses today's best pairs.
- GLW & GNRC. Concentrated long exposure across eleven pairs; watch whether the AI-industrial pullback is a one-session wobble or a de-rating.
- Intel's raise. A dilutive print into a soft tape; relevant to the book's two INTC shorts if the overhang persists.