Iran said the strait was closed and CENTCOM said it was not; both statements were issued the same day, and both cannot be true. The crude market did not wait for the adjudication. The book was built to catch exactly this — long refiners against crowded megacap technology — and on the day the claim landed, it did.

Dashboard — July 13, 2026 Settled Close

All dashboard levels are July 13, 2026 New York settled closes from a single source (yfinance batch OHLC); the Yahoo v8 chart API did not confirm for this historical date, so this edition is single-source by exception. The distillate crack spread is front-month ULSD times forty-two, less front-month WTI, in dollars per barrel. Day changes are measured against the Friday, July 10 settled close.

I. The Strait Says Closed, the Tape Says Otherwise

Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed until further notice. United States Central Command (“CENTCOM”) denied the claim and said its forces had begun further attacks to ensure freedom of navigation through the waterway. Both statements were issued on the same day, and both cannot be true. The crude market did not wait for the adjudication: West Texas Intermediate settled at $78.14, up 9.42 percent from Friday’s $71.41, and Brent settled at $83.30, up 9.59 percent. The exchange-traded corroboration held — the United States Oil Fund (“USO”) gained 8.36 percent and the United States Brent Oil Fund (“BNO”) gained 9.13 percent — both consistent with the futures move rather than a print anomaly.

The equity tape read the same news in the opposite direction. The S&P 500 lost 0.79 percent to 7,515.34, the Nasdaq Composite lost 1.55 percent to 25,873.18, and the Dow held better, down 0.26 percent. The CBOE Volatility Index rose 14.17 percent to 17.16 — a real move, though from a level that still does not describe fear. A chokepoint is not a narrative. It is twenty-one miles of water, and roughly a fifth of the world’s oil consumption transits it.

II. Rates and the Vigilante Register

The Treasury par yield curve moved in the direction that matters. The ten-year rose to 4.61 percent from 4.57, the thirty-year rose to 5.10 percent from 5.06, and the two-year rose to 4.26 percent from 4.21. This is worth marking precisely because it is not the reflex: a geopolitical supply shock that knocks 79 basis points off the Nasdaq would ordinarily bid the long bond. Instead the curve sold off across all three tenors while equities fell. The bond market is treating an oil shock as an inflation event rather than a growth scare — the vigilante posture, consistent with the register this publication has kept since May.

Gold fell 2.61 percent to $3,997.00 and the Dollar Index rose 0.31 percent to 101.28. A rising dollar alongside falling gold alongside a rising long yield is a coherent set. It is the market saying the Federal Reserve will have to stay where it is.

III. The Pair Book — Refiners Do the Work

Twenty-six active pairs per the v6 canonical book of record. Day is the July 10 to July 13 settled move; QTD is measured from the June 30 settled close per the period-baseline rule; pairs marked † (P39, P40, P41) were opened during the quarter and their QTD is inception-to-date. Exact inception share counts throughout; zero notional approximation. Ranked by unrealized profit and loss.

The book made +$17,918.80 on the day, with fifteen of twenty-six pairs advancing. The refiner pairs did the work on a single day’s catalyst: P41 (long Marathon Petroleum / short Tesla) added +$8,034 and P40 (long Valero / short Apple) added +$5,001, both opened at the July 7 prints on the thesis of long refiners against crowded megacap technology. P36 (long Chevron / short Broadcom) added +$6,384 from the integrated side as the semiconductor proxy fell 4.77 percent. Against that, P26 (long GE Vernova / short energy) lost $7,381 — the cost of a structure that is short energy as a hedge on a day energy rallied — and P18 (long GitLab / short Atlassian) gave back $7,097. Quarter-to-date the book stands at +$81,684.18; active unrealized is −$110,180.23 against the frozen realized register of +$487,933.25, for an inception-to-date result of $377,753.02 — a fresh high for the cycle. The book is not winning on its open positions; it is winning because it closed the right things at the right time.

IV. Harvest Shadow — the Edge Stands at $279,284.75

The standing counterfactual: the ten pairs closed at the June 30 settled-close sweep, marked forward as though the harvest had never happened, exits frozen at their actual June 30 prints. Through the July 13 close the harvest decision is +$279,284.75 better than holding would have been. The decay is concentrated in Corning (“GLW”), which anchored three of the eight profit closures and has fallen from $255.43 on June 30 to $183.11 today; P1 alone realized $245,728 and would be worth $152,131 now. The sweep was not luck — it was the right trade at the top of a move, and every session since has widened the margin.

V. What to Watch

Whether the strait claim survives contact with the tanker data — Iran’s declaration and CENTCOM’s denial will be settled by transit counts, not statements, and the resolution will arrive over days rather than hours. Whether the long end keeps selling on supply shocks: if the thirty-year continues to rise on days when equities fall, the vigilante framework is doing real work and the book’s posture is right; if the bid returns to the long bond, the inflation read is wrong and a rethink is owed. And whether the refiner-versus-megacap expression is a one-day catalyst trade or a regime — P40 and P41 have made money in six sessions, which is not yet evidence.